Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-03-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.79   1.05   41916 16321 25503 92
Day 1 forecast -0.79   1.04   41916 16206 25621 89
Day 4 forecast -0.8   1.05   41916 16329 25500 87
Day 7 forecast -0.78   1.03   41916 15739 26087 90
Day 10 forecast -0.79   1.04   41916 16260 25563 93

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.005 0.069 0.156 0.063 0.014 0.007
c2 0 0.002 0.066 0.194 0.098 0.025 0.006
c3 0 0 0.009 0.042 0.053 0.044 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.015 0.045 0.037
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.005 0.068 0.155 0.063 0.014 0.007
c2 0 0.002 0.067 0.196 0.099 0.024 0.006
c3 0 0 0.008 0.042 0.053 0.045 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.015 0.044 0.037
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.017
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.005 0.068 0.151 0.061 0.013 0.007
c2 0 0.002 0.066 0.197 0.098 0.024 0.006
c3 0 0 0.009 0.044 0.054 0.042 0.005
c4 0 0 0 0.006 0.016 0.047 0.037
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.018
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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