Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2020-01-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.78	0.94	36063	13460	22575	28
Day 1 forecast	-0.78	0.94	36063	13359	22675	29
Day 4 forecast	-0.78	0.95	36063	13558	22475	30
Day 7 forecast	-0.76	0.92	36063	12814	23217	32
Day 10 forecast	-0.78	0.94	36063	13322	22719	22

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.017	0.234	0.195	0.054	0.008	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.055	0.148	0.056	0.006	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.033	0.086	0.062	0.013
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.005	0.001
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.017	0.233	0.194	0.053	0.008	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.056	0.149	0.056	0.006	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.033	0.086	0.063	0.013
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.006	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
	c1	0	0.017	0.225	0.186	0.052	0.008	0.005
	c2	0	0.003	0.063	0.155	0.055	0.005	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.034	0.086	0.062	0.013
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.007	0.007	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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