Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.12	1.26	47110	24477	22593	40
Day 1 forecast	-1.12	1.26	47110	24465	22603	42
Day 4 forecast	-1.12	1.26	47110	24555	22510	45
Day 7 forecast	-1.11	1.26	47110	24308	22759	43
Day 10 forecast	-1.11	1.25	47110	24171	22890	49

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.045	0.143	0.064	0.018	0.017
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.061	0.137	0.076	0.02
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.035	0.086	0.114	0.036
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.017	0.07
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.045	0.143	0.063	0.018	0.016
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.061	0.14	0.077	0.02
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.035	0.084	0.114	0.036
	c4	0	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.017	0.069
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.001	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.044	0.142	0.063	0.018	0.016
	c2	0	0	0.005	0.061	0.139	0.076	0.019
	c3	0	0	0.002	0.035	0.085	0.114	0.036
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.006	0.017	0.07
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.033
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.007

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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