Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.03	1.19	48010	22975	24986	49
Day 1 forecast	-1.02	1.18	48010	22767	25190	53
Day 4 forecast	-1.03	1.18	48010	22829	25124	57
Day 7 forecast	-1.02	1.18	48010	22448	25509	53
Day 10 forecast	-1.01	1.17	48010	22086	25866	58

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.049	0.145	0.067	0.017	0.014
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.09	0.149	0.049	0.014
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.05	0.109	0.081	0.023
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.007	0.019	0.062
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.029
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.049	0.144	0.066	0.016	0.013
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.091	0.15	0.049	0.014
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.049	0.108	0.082	0.023
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.007	0.019	0.062
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.029
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0.001
	c1	0	0.003	0.048	0.143	0.066	0.016	0.013
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.09	0.148	0.048	0.014
	c3	0	0	0.004	0.05	0.11	0.082	0.023
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.008	0.02	0.061
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.029
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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