Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1   1.15   47297 21801 25411 85
Day 1 forecast -0.99   1.13   47297 21347 25864 86
Day 4 forecast -0.99   1.14   47297 21403 25803 91
Day 7 forecast -0.98   1.12   47297 20842 26371 84
Day 10 forecast -0.96   1.11   47297 20209 26988 100

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.004 0.059 0.147 0.062 0.014 0.011
c2 0 0 0.006 0.1 0.155 0.044 0.012
c3 0 0 0.004 0.049 0.104 0.078 0.024
c4 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.022 0.057
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.027
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.004 0.059 0.144 0.061 0.014 0.011
c2 0 0 0.007 0.1 0.155 0.044 0.012
c3 0 0 0.004 0.051 0.105 0.078 0.024
c4 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.022 0.057
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.027
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.004 0.058 0.142 0.059 0.013 0.01
c2 0 0 0.007 0.1 0.153 0.043 0.012
c3 0 0 0.004 0.052 0.108 0.079 0.024
c4 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.023 0.057
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.027
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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