Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.96   1.09   39778 21520 18198 60
Day 1 forecast -0.96   1.09   39778 21390 18328 60
Day 4 forecast -0.96   1.1   39778 21657 18066 55
Day 7 forecast -0.94   1.07   39778 20699 19016 63
Day 10 forecast -0.97   1.1   39778 21885 17843 50

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.023 0.296 0.209 0.062 0.019 0.004
c2 0 0.002 0.039 0.049 0.096 0.069 0.013
c3 0 0 0 0.002 0.018 0.03 0.052
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.022 0.296 0.209 0.063 0.019 0.004
c2 0 0.002 0.04 0.048 0.093 0.069 0.013
c3 0 0 0 0.002 0.02 0.029 0.051
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.012
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.022 0.288 0.203 0.06 0.017 0.004
c2 0 0.003 0.047 0.054 0.095 0.068 0.012
c3 0 0 0 0.002 0.021 0.033 0.053
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.011
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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