Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-12-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.03   1.17   35743 22090 13631 22
Day 1 forecast -1.02   1.16   35743 21938 13785 20
Day 4 forecast -1.03   1.17   35743 22185 13538 20
Day 7 forecast -1   1.14   35743 21360 14355 28
Day 10 forecast -1.02   1.16   35743 21969 13756 18

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.047 0.323 0.189 0.082 0.024 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.014 0.028 0.109 0.075 0.021
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.02 0.046
c4 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.047 0.323 0.186 0.081 0.023 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.014 0.031 0.108 0.075 0.02
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.009 0.02 0.047
c4 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.047 0.322 0.181 0.079 0.022 0.006
c2 0 0.001 0.015 0.036 0.108 0.073 0.017
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.011 0.023 0.049
c4 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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