Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-12-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.1   1.23   34796 23396 11375 25
Day 1 forecast -1.09   1.22   34796 23192 11579 25
Day 4 forecast -1.1   1.22   34796 23372 11400 24
Day 7 forecast -1.07   1.2   34796 22563 12208 25
Day 10 forecast -1.09   1.22   34796 23232 11540 24

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.041 0.321 0.184 0.106 0.027 0.008
c2 0 0 0.009 0.02 0.095 0.081 0.038
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.016 0.041
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.041 0.321 0.183 0.104 0.026 0.007
c2 0 0 0.009 0.022 0.096 0.081 0.036
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.016 0.043
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c1 0 0.041 0.32 0.18 0.101 0.026 0.007
c2 0 0 0.011 0.024 0.098 0.082 0.034
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.017 0.044
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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