Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2018-12-20
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -1.1 | 1.23 | 34796 | 23396 | 11375 | 25 |
| Day 1 forecast | -1.09 | 1.22 | 34796 | 23192 | 11579 | 25 |
| Day 4 forecast | -1.1 | 1.22 | 34796 | 23372 | 11400 | 24 |
| Day 7 forecast | -1.07 | 1.2 | 34796 | 22563 | 12208 | 25 |
| Day 10 forecast | -1.09 | 1.22 | 34796 | 23232 | 11540 | 24 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.041 | 0.321 | 0.184 | 0.106 | 0.027 | 0.008 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.02 | 0.095 | 0.081 | 0.038 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.016 | 0.041 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.041 | 0.321 | 0.183 | 0.104 | 0.026 | 0.007 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.022 | 0.096 | 0.081 | 0.036 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.016 | 0.043 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.041 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 0.101 | 0.026 | 0.007 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.011 | 0.024 | 0.098 | 0.082 | 0.034 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.017 | 0.044 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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