Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2018-12-06
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -1.18 | 1.31 | 32519 | 25047 | 7462 | 10 |
| Day 1 forecast | -1.18 | 1.3 | 32519 | 24938 | 7571 | 10 |
| Day 4 forecast | -1.18 | 1.31 | 32519 | 25206 | 7303 | 10 |
| Day 7 forecast | -1.16 | 1.28 | 32519 | 24327 | 8181 | 11 |
| Day 10 forecast | -1.18 | 1.3 | 32519 | 25197 | 7314 | 8 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.207 | 0.129 | 0.046 | 0.01 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.016 | 0.068 | 0.06 | 0.048 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.035 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.008 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.206 | 0.123 | 0.042 | 0.01 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.017 | 0.073 | 0.063 | 0.047 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.009 | 0.037 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.008 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 0.204 | 0.118 | 0.04 | 0.01 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.019 | 0.078 | 0.066 | 0.044 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.002 | 0.007 | 0.009 | 0.04 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.008 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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