Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-18

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.97   1.06   18120 12094 5947 79
Day 1 forecast -0.96   1.06   18120 11995 6045 80
Day 4 forecast -0.97   1.06   18120 11991 6050 79
Day 7 forecast -0.96   1.05   18120 11994 6047 79
Day 10 forecast -0.97   1.06   18120 11941 6104 75

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.042 0.235 0.314 0.144 0.013 0.002
c2 0 0 0.01 0.065 0.084 0.031 0.004
c3 0 0.001 0.001 0.01 0.014 0.008 0.004
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.005 0.002 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.042 0.235 0.31 0.143 0.013 0.002
c2 0 0 0.01 0.068 0.084 0.031 0.004
c3 0 0.001 0.002 0.011 0.015 0.007 0.003
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.005 0.002 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.042 0.234 0.309 0.14 0.013 0.002
c2 0 0 0.011 0.069 0.085 0.031 0.005
c3 0 0.001 0.002 0.011 0.016 0.008 0.003
c4 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.005 0.002 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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