Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.06	1.2	12149	5604	6518	27
Day 1 forecast	-1.06	1.2	12149	5599	6524	26
Day 4 forecast	-1.06	1.2	12149	5593	6530	26
Day 7 forecast	-1.06	1.2	12149	5610	6513	26
Day 10 forecast	-1.06	1.2	12149	5577	6546	26

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.022	0.058	0.041	0.024	0.011
	c2	0	0	0.003	0.037	0.127	0.114	0.049
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.042	0.144	0.129	0.082
	c4	0	0.001	0	0.003	0.018	0.02	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.009
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.021	0.057	0.041	0.023	0.011
	c2	0	0	0.003	0.037	0.125	0.115	0.049
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.043	0.147	0.13	0.083
	c4	0	0.001	0	0.002	0.017	0.02	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.009
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.021	0.058	0.04	0.022	0.011
	c2	0	0	0.004	0.035	0.126	0.116	0.049
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.043	0.146	0.129	0.083
	c4	0	0.001	0	0.002	0.017	0.02	0.056
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.001	0.002	0.009
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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