Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.94   1.09   41216 17182 23999 35
Day 1 forecast -0.93   1.08   41216 17009 24173 34
Day 4 forecast -0.93   1.09   41216 17032 24151 33
Day 7 forecast -0.92   1.07   41216 16624 24556 36
Day 10 forecast -0.93   1.08   41216 16816 24364 36

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.077 0.163 0.065 0.016 0.012
c2 0 0 0.005 0.093 0.135 0.046 0.004
c3 0 0 0.002 0.066 0.115 0.071 0.038
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.013 0.031 0.03
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.076 0.161 0.064 0.015 0.012
c2 0 0 0.005 0.095 0.136 0.046 0.005
c3 0 0 0.002 0.067 0.118 0.072 0.038
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.011 0.03 0.03
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.076 0.159 0.061 0.014 0.012
c2 0 0 0.005 0.094 0.135 0.046 0.004
c3 0 0 0.002 0.07 0.12 0.073 0.039
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.013 0.03 0.03
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.006
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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