Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-11-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.98   1.08   32386 20985 11386 15
Day 1 forecast -0.98   1.08   32386 21016 11353 17
Day 4 forecast -0.99   1.08   32386 21244 11127 15
Day 7 forecast -0.97   1.07   32386 20420 11946 20
Day 10 forecast -0.99   1.08   32386 21268 11102 16

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.049 0.273 0.291 0.101 0.011 0.005
c2 0 0 0.014 0.044 0.066 0.018 0.003
c3 0 0 0.001 0.007 0.031 0.045 0.02
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.009 0.004 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c1 0 0.049 0.273 0.291 0.102 0.011 0.005
c2 0 0 0.013 0.044 0.066 0.019 0.004
c3 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.031 0.043 0.02
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.008 0.004 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0 0.001
c1 0 0.049 0.271 0.29 0.097 0.011 0.005
c2 0 0.001 0.015 0.044 0.07 0.019 0.004
c3 0 0 0.002 0.008 0.032 0.045 0.019
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.007 0.003 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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