Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.8	0.91	20121	10947	9117	57
Day 1 forecast	-0.8	0.92	20121	10974	9088	59
Day 4 forecast	-0.8	0.92	20121	11016	9042	63
Day 7 forecast	-0.79	0.91	20121	10704	9356	61
Day 10 forecast	-0.81	0.92	20121	11085	8985	51

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.002	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.052	0.259	0.265	0.068	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.001	0.028	0.096	0.072	0.002	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.009	0.032	0.063	0.011	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.011	0.008	0.003
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.051	0.255	0.265	0.068	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.003	0.031	0.093	0.077	0.004	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.036	0.06	0.011	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.009	0.007	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.001	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.051	0.255	0.262	0.068	0.001	0.001
	c2	0	0.003	0.031	0.096	0.076	0.003	0.001
	c3	0	0	0.01	0.037	0.061	0.012	0.002
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.009	0.007	0.002
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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