Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.8   0.92   17124 9076 7989 59
Day 1 forecast -0.81   0.93   17124 9275 7791 58
Day 4 forecast -0.81   0.93   17124 9301 7766 57
Day 7 forecast -0.8   0.93   17124 9155 7909 60
Day 10 forecast -0.81   0.94   17124 9279 7791 54

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.033 0.222 0.283 0.066 0.003 0.002
c2 0 0.002 0.03 0.106 0.077 0.003 0
c3 0 0 0.013 0.04 0.067 0.013 0.002
c4 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.014 0.006 0.003
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.033 0.223 0.287 0.067 0.003 0.002
c2 0 0.002 0.029 0.101 0.081 0.004 0
c3 0 0 0.012 0.041 0.064 0.013 0.002
c4 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.012 0.006 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.003 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.033 0.223 0.285 0.066 0.003 0.002
c2 0 0.002 0.03 0.103 0.08 0.003 0
c3 0 0 0.012 0.042 0.065 0.014 0.003
c4 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.012 0.006 0.002
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0 0.001
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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