Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-05-11

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.7	0.91	43134	11196	31724	214
Day 1 forecast	-0.7	0.91	43134	11234	31682	218
Day 4 forecast	-0.7	0.92	43134	11337	31577	220
Day 7 forecast	-0.69	0.91	43134	11014	31905	215
Day 10 forecast	-0.71	0.92	43134	11308	31613	213

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.048	0.084	0.024	0.007	0.006
	c2	0	0.002	0.022	0.145	0.159	0.051	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.062	0.109	0.066	0.011
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.044	0.051	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.027	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.022

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.048	0.084	0.024	0.007	0.006
	c2	0	0.002	0.022	0.145	0.159	0.052	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.061	0.109	0.065	0.011
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.043	0.052	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.009	0.026	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.022

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.045	0.081	0.022	0.007	0.006
	c2	0	0.002	0.025	0.147	0.158	0.05	0.007
	c3	0	0	0.005	0.062	0.111	0.067	0.011
	c4	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.044	0.052	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.01	0.027	0.017
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.022

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh on. 25. okt. 12:37:11 +0000 2017 on arcmfcval