Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.71	0.89	46118	14099	31906	113
Day 1 forecast	-0.71	0.9	46118	14183	31828	107
Day 4 forecast	-0.72	0.9	46118	14278	31717	123
Day 7 forecast	-0.71	0.89	46118	13985	32036	97
Day 10 forecast	-0.72	0.91	46118	14646	31343	129

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.061	0.13	0.033	0.011	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.164	0.162	0.038	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.06	0.085	0.037	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.046	0.041	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.008	0.021	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.016

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.004	0.061	0.129	0.033	0.011	0.008
	c2	0	0.001	0.018	0.165	0.162	0.038	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.006	0.06	0.085	0.038	0.006
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.046	0.041	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.008	0.02	0.02
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.004	0.016

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.003	0.06	0.125	0.032	0.011	0.009
	c2	0	0.001	0.019	0.166	0.161	0.039	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.007	0.063	0.086	0.037	0.005
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.047	0.042	0.01
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.007	0.019	0.021
	c6	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.003	0.015

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh on. 25. okt. 12:32:35 +0000 2017 on arcmfcval