Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-03-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.78   0.99   49477 17924 31358 195
Day 1 forecast -0.79   0.99   49477 18030 31258 189
Day 4 forecast -0.79   0.99   49477 18152 31151 174
Day 7 forecast -0.78   0.99   49477 18016 31243 218
Day 10 forecast -0.8   1   49477 18104 31234 139

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.059 0.139 0.046 0.015 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.026 0.189 0.145 0.056 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.043 0.07 0.033 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.028 0.033 0.018
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.011 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.002 0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.06 0.14 0.046 0.016 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.026 0.189 0.146 0.055 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.042 0.069 0.034 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.028 0.033 0.018
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.005 0.01 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.009

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.003 0.059 0.139 0.046 0.015 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.026 0.189 0.147 0.054 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.042 0.068 0.034 0.005
c4 0 0 0.001 0.006 0.027 0.033 0.017
c5 0 0 0 0.002 0.006 0.011 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.011

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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