Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.81   0.98   42006 17313 24595 98
Day 1 forecast -0.82   0.98   42006 17509 24404 93
Day 4 forecast -0.82   0.99   42006 17781 24127 98
Day 7 forecast -0.81   0.98   42006 17049 24865 92
Day 10 forecast -0.83   1   42006 17695 24238 73

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.01 0.179 0.203 0.081 0.024 0.012
c2 0 0.001 0.057 0.135 0.061 0.019 0.005
c3 0 0 0.004 0.029 0.032 0.034 0.01
c4 0 0 0 0.004 0.021 0.032 0.021
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.015
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.01 0.176 0.205 0.083 0.025 0.012
c2 0 0.001 0.06 0.134 0.059 0.018 0.005
c3 0 0 0.003 0.028 0.035 0.035 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.019 0.031 0.021
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.014
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.009 0.168 0.187 0.079 0.023 0.013
c2 0 0.001 0.068 0.151 0.062 0.02 0.005
c3 0 0 0.003 0.029 0.035 0.035 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.019 0.031 0.02
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.015
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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