Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results
  Ice thickness stat.s ++
  Contingency tables

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-12-25

Data source: AWI SMOS sea ice thickness

Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<0.3m
c20.3 - 0.6m
c30.6 - 1m
c4>1m

Model vs. SMOS observations, sea ice thickness contingency tables

Date: 2025-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 158736 15466 0 0 0
c1 2086 25886 1933 210 0
c2 262 7559 7433 3819 0
c3 221 2105 2417 5280 0
c4 18 622 1350 1642 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 157946 11110 1 0 0
c1 2164 29182 2441 120 0
c2 183 8847 9317 2717 0
c3 106 2728 3457 4986 0
c4 23 543 1175 1732 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 137099 9158 0 0 0
c1 1649 28746 3832 66 0
c2 120 9121 10132 3273 0
c3 65 1625 3477 5208 0
c4 33 801 2500 1969 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 137136 9532 0 0 0
c1 1494 25677 5403 418 0
c2 74 9588 9210 3159 0
c3 28 1668 3514 5313 0
c4 27 593 2429 2024 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 137145 9637 0 0 0
c1 1491 25643 5663 422 0
c2 68 9580 9005 3215 0
c3 28 1596 3458 5249 0
c4 27 602 2430 2028 0

Date: 2025-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 141085 8247 0 0 0
c1 1684 23602 4486 1074 0
c2 62 7987 10514 3406 0
c3 55 2185 4384 5058 0
c4 18 325 1509 2289 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 141117 8322 1 0 0
c1 1657 23522 4506 1127 0
c2 56 8013 10606 3413 0
c3 55 2126 4249 4966 0
c4 19 363 1531 2321 0

Date: 2025-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 150374 6976 0 0 0
c1 1569 29956 7538 2005 0
c2 77 5891 14031 5483 0
c3 96 2615 5309 5761 0
c4 22 237 1207 2422 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 149318 7513 7 0 0
c1 2617 26728 7029 2291 0
c2 80 8639 13550 4184 0
c3 96 2313 6123 6628 0
c4 27 482 1376 2568 0

Date: 2025-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 128368 5608 0 0 0
c1 2460 26672 5223 2011 0
c2 115 7249 12030 5676 0
c3 102 2058 4059 5105 0
c4 35 212 1021 2581 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 127529 5868 0 0 0
c1 3258 24934 5174 2248 0
c2 128 8839 11004 4905 0
c3 126 1704 4896 5478 0
c4 39 454 1259 2742 0

Date: 2026-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 132226 5896 0 0 0
c1 3231 26165 4509 1825 0
c2 76 9454 8884 5276 0
c3 53 2521 4661 5723 0
c4 31 245 1518 2625 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 131446 5743 2 0 0
c1 3924 25245 4960 2012 0
c2 138 10291 7725 4803 0
c3 76 2628 5253 5870 0
c4 33 374 1632 2764 0


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