Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-0.46	0.69	33361	6890	26444	27
Day 1 forecast	-0.47	0.69	33361	7152	26180	29
Day 4 forecast	-0.48	0.7	33361	7389	25945	27
Day 7 forecast	-0.46	0.68	33361	6894	26437	30
Day 10 forecast	-0.54	0.74	33361	8714	24628	19

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

---

Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

---

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.047	0.315	0.076	0.01	0.002	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.088	0.139	0.024	0.002	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.014	0.141	0.063	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0	0.012	0.036	0.01	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.002	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.047	0.315	0.077	0.011	0.002	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.088	0.142	0.025	0.002	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.137	0.062	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.012	0.037	0.01	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0.001	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.047	0.31	0.075	0.011	0.002	0.005
	c2	0	0.001	0.093	0.143	0.025	0.002	0.002
	c3	0	0	0.013	0.138	0.061	0.005	0.001
	c4	0	0	0.001	0.012	0.037	0.01	0
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.002	0
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh Fri 15 Dec 2023 02:05:26 AM UTC on arcval