Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2023-11-23
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.51 | 0.71 | 32638 | 8137 | 24471 | 30 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.53 | 0.73 | 32638 | 8632 | 23979 | 27 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.55 | 0.74 | 32638 | 9017 | 23596 | 25 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.53 | 0.72 | 32638 | 8385 | 24225 | 28 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.61 | 0.79 | 32638 | 10759 | 21859 | 20 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.064 | 0.312 | 0.084 | 0.01 | 0.002 | 0.004 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.08 | 0.142 | 0.027 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.125 | 0.071 | 0.007 | 0.002 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.033 | 0.015 | 0.001 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.064 | 0.318 | 0.089 | 0.011 | 0.002 | 0.004 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.074 | 0.147 | 0.028 | 0.002 | 0.001 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.115 | 0.071 | 0.007 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.031 | 0.015 | 0.001 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.064 | 0.319 | 0.087 | 0.011 | 0.002 | 0.004 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.073 | 0.151 | 0.029 | 0.002 | 0.002 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.009 | 0.113 | 0.07 | 0.007 | 0.001 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.032 | 0.016 | 0.001 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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