Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.11	1.26	12557	5956	6544	57
Day 1 forecast	-1.1	1.26	12557	5945	6555	57
Day 4 forecast	-1.1	1.25	12557	5923	6577	57
Day 7 forecast	-1.11	1.26	12557	5967	6533	57
Day 10 forecast	-1.11	1.26	12557	6002	6497	58

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.023	0.052	0.032	0.007	0.013
	c2	0	0.002	0.006	0.041	0.115	0.067	0.041
	c3	0	0.002	0.002	0.017	0.084	0.152	0.128
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.018	0.052	0.101
	c5	0	0	0	0	0.002	0.005	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.023	0.052	0.031	0.007	0.013
	c2	0	0.002	0.007	0.042	0.117	0.066	0.04
	c3	0	0.002	0.002	0.017	0.084	0.152	0.128
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.018	0.052	0.101
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.005	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.002	0.022	0.052	0.031	0.007	0.012
	c2	0	0.002	0.007	0.041	0.117	0.066	0.04
	c3	0	0.002	0.002	0.017	0.083	0.151	0.129
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.017	0.052	0.102
	c5	0	0	0	0.001	0.002	0.005	0.026
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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