Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-28

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.96   1.12   49416 20917 28429 70
Day 1 forecast -0.95   1.1   49416 20574 28773 69
Day 4 forecast -0.95   1.1   49416 20558 28795 63
Day 7 forecast -0.94   1.09   49416 20210 29121 85
Day 10 forecast -0.95   1.1   49416 20199 29154 63

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.051 0.131 0.061 0.02 0.01
c2 0 0 0.012 0.162 0.175 0.04 0.009
c3 0 0 0.005 0.042 0.088 0.055 0.027
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.019 0.055
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.05 0.13 0.059 0.019 0.009
c2 0 0 0.012 0.16 0.176 0.041 0.01
c3 0 0 0.005 0.044 0.088 0.054 0.026
c4 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.02 0.057
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0.001 0 0.001 0
c1 0 0.003 0.05 0.128 0.059 0.019 0.009
c2 0 0 0.011 0.155 0.171 0.04 0.01
c3 0 0 0.006 0.052 0.093 0.055 0.025
c4 0 0 0 0.002 0.004 0.02 0.056
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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