Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-12-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -1.16   1.28   34582 24852 9708 22
Day 1 forecast -1.15   1.27   34582 24751 9811 20
Day 4 forecast -1.15   1.28   34582 24970 9595 17
Day 7 forecast -1.13   1.26   34582 24117 10442 23
Day 10 forecast -1.15   1.28   34582 24975 9596 11

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.05 0.31 0.186 0.123 0.039 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.076 0.068 0.048
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.04
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.002 0 0 0
c1 0 0.05 0.309 0.185 0.119 0.035 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.08 0.072 0.046
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.042
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.005
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0 0
c1 0 0.05 0.309 0.185 0.115 0.032 0.007
c2 0 0.001 0.004 0.021 0.084 0.075 0.045
c3 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.011 0.042
c4 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.006
c5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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