Description of algorithm Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

	Bias (m)	RMS (m)	total grids	low SIT	OK SIT	high SIT
Best estimate	-1.04	1.12	20606	15655	4937	14
Day 1 forecast	-1.02	1.11	20606	15396	5196	14
Day 4 forecast	-1.03	1.11	20606	15404	5188	14
Day 7 forecast	-1.02	1.1	20606	15351	5241	14
Day 10 forecast	-1.03	1.12	20606	15480	5112	14

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)

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Definition of categories:

Category	Sea ice thickness
c1	<1m
c2	1 - 1.5m
c3	1.5 - 2m
c4	2 - 2.5m
c5	2.5 - 3m
c6	>3m

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Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.001	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.068	0.253	0.258	0.168	0.018	0.002
	c2	0	0	0.006	0.048	0.081	0.041	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.005	0.012	0.008	0.008
	c4	0	0	0	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.005
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.003	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.067	0.25	0.255	0.166	0.018	0.002
	c2	0	0	0.007	0.051	0.082	0.04	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.013	0.008	0.008
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.002	0.001	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.002
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

		observations
		open	c1	c2	c3	c4	c5	c6
m o d e l	open	0	0.001	0.003	0	0	0	0
	c1	0	0.067	0.249	0.254	0.162	0.017	0.002
	c2	0	0	0.008	0.051	0.085	0.041	0.005
	c3	0	0	0.001	0.006	0.013	0.009	0.008
	c4	0	0	0	0.003	0.002	0.001	0.006
	c5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.003
	c6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast

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