Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-04

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.92   1.03   11710 6943 4737 30
Day 1 forecast -0.92   1.03   11710 6911 4768 31
Day 4 forecast -0.92   1.03   11710 6885 4798 27
Day 7 forecast -0.93   1.03   11710 6940 4739 31
Day 10 forecast -0.92   1.03   11710 6880 4804 26

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.035 0.279 0.294 0.155 0.013 0
c2 0 0.002 0.019 0.062 0.079 0.022 0.003
c3 0 0 0 0.006 0.013 0.003 0
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.007 0 0
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.001 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.035 0.278 0.294 0.156 0.013 0
c2 0 0.001 0.019 0.063 0.079 0.021 0.003
c3 0 0 0 0.006 0.013 0.003 0
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.007 0.001 0
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.035 0.28 0.295 0.155 0.013 0
c2 0 0.001 0.018 0.061 0.079 0.022 0.003
c3 0 0 0 0.006 0.013 0.003 0
c4 0 0 0 0.005 0.008 0.001 0
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0 0
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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