Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-04-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.68   0.85   45353 12780 32460 113
Day 1 forecast -0.69   0.85   45353 12866 32377 110
Day 4 forecast -0.69   0.85   45353 12965 32283 105
Day 7 forecast -0.68   0.84   45353 12541 32717 95
Day 10 forecast -0.7   0.86   45353 13017 32238 98

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.06 0.1 0.03 0.007 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.019 0.157 0.171 0.051 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.07 0.099 0.037 0.006
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.045 0.041 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.01 0.022 0.022
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.02

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.059 0.101 0.03 0.008 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.019 0.157 0.17 0.051 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.07 0.1 0.038 0.006
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.046 0.042 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0.009 0.021 0.022
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.019

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.003 0.057 0.093 0.03 0.008 0.003
c2 0 0.001 0.021 0.16 0.167 0.049 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.073 0.102 0.04 0.006
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.047 0.041 0.007
c5 0 0 0 0 0.009 0.021 0.021
c6 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.02

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh on. 25. okt. 12:33:47 +0000 2017 on arcmfcval

 
See Met Privacy