Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.77   0.99   46352 17369 28862 121
Day 1 forecast -0.78   1   46352 17573 28658 121
Day 4 forecast -0.78   1   46352 17791 28446 115
Day 7 forecast -0.76   0.99   46352 17260 28947 145
Day 10 forecast -0.79   1.01   46352 18070 28164 118

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.007 0.104 0.134 0.052 0.019 0.011
c2 0 0.001 0.09 0.204 0.104 0.028 0.009
c3 0 0 0.006 0.045 0.036 0.03 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.019 0.03 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.007 0.105 0.136 0.053 0.02 0.011
c2 0 0.001 0.09 0.202 0.103 0.028 0.009
c3 0 0 0.006 0.045 0.038 0.031 0.007
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.018 0.03 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.007 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.007 0.103 0.13 0.05 0.02 0.011
c2 0 0.001 0.092 0.206 0.105 0.028 0.009
c3 0 0 0.006 0.047 0.038 0.03 0.006
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.019 0.029 0.017
c5 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.007 0.024
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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