Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.84   1.03   43321 17723 25514 84
Day 1 forecast -0.85   1.03   43321 17888 25353 80
Day 4 forecast -0.85   1.04   43321 18113 25127 81
Day 7 forecast -0.83   1.02   43321 17623 25609 89
Day 10 forecast -0.86   1.04   43321 18269 24973 79

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.145 0.157 0.067 0.024 0.014
c2 0 0 0.062 0.177 0.095 0.027 0.007
c3 0 0 0.004 0.028 0.035 0.034 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.021 0.032 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.02
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.144 0.159 0.071 0.025 0.015
c2 0 0 0.063 0.176 0.092 0.026 0.006
c3 0 0 0.004 0.028 0.036 0.036 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.019 0.031 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.019
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.139 0.149 0.065 0.025 0.015
c2 0 0 0.067 0.183 0.097 0.028 0.006
c3 0 0 0.005 0.031 0.036 0.035 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.02 0.03 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005 0.02
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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