Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-01-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.82   1.02   41216 17433 23691 92
Day 1 forecast -0.83   1.02   41216 17610 23518 88
Day 4 forecast -0.84   1.02   41216 17843 23290 83
Day 7 forecast -0.82   1.01   41216 17150 23966 100
Day 10 forecast -0.82   1.01   41216 17024 24091 101

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.015 0.203 0.21 0.094 0.027 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.046 0.1 0.049 0.018 0.004
c3 0 0 0.007 0.036 0.03 0.033 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.016 0.033 0.023
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.015 0.203 0.212 0.095 0.027 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.046 0.098 0.048 0.018 0.004
c3 0 0 0.007 0.036 0.033 0.035 0.012
c4 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.014 0.031 0.025
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.011
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.015 0.197 0.205 0.095 0.027 0.013
c2 0 0.001 0.052 0.106 0.047 0.017 0.005
c3 0 0 0.007 0.035 0.035 0.038 0.011
c4 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013 0.03 0.024
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.002

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


Generated by /metno/routine/sms/V2/SIthickness/c2iceWebPage.sh on. 25. okt. 12:19:15 +0000 2017 on arcmfcval

 
See Met Privacy